Hey everyone. Did someone die around here? It's been a difficult 28 hours for Auburn fans, who were hopeful that National Signing Day would bring some intriguing surprises. Instead, it was a mess. The Tigers went 0-for-5 with their realistic "bubble" recruits, and officially lost a pair of commitments (CB George Baker and WR Jarmon Fortson) in the process.
My story today was pretty critical of Auburn's overall performance, which is reasonable given Wednesday's problems. Losing Enrique Davis is a mess no matter how you slice it.
Still, the more I think about it, Auburn's situation probably isn't as dire as it seems. I am in no way being the Iraqi Information Minister here. I believe, however, that Alabama's wildly successful class is prompting more criticism than necessary for the Auburn class.
Check it:
Scout.com ranked Auburn's class 19th.
Rivals.com ranked Auburn's class 20th.
I predicted a month ago, on this very blog, that Auburn would finish anywhere from the mid-teens to 20 "as usual." That's where Tuberville, Inc., finished. Had Alabama signed another Shula-style class, Auburn's haul would have been viewed less critically. I believe that. Duality exists in this state without question. When one team dominates something, be it recruiting or the Iron Bowl, the dominated team's situation seems more dire than it really is.
I'd give Auburn's overall recruiting performance a C- or a D+. It wasn't a go-see-the-principal F as some have suggested.
I gotta tell you, I've been following rec a long time and this is not a bad class at all. Sure they lost some guys, but they do every year. Also I think you rate a class when they graduate,not before. Ever heard of Alan Evans? He was the headliner in Bo Jackson's class. He transfered to UT Chatt. and really didn't do much there either.
ReplyDeleteI agree that recruiting rankings mean very little, and that this class isnt as bad as some may believe. But the problem I have is the way that our recruiting seemed to regress from the past few years. Here are our Rivals rankings over the last four years:
ReplyDelete04- 21
05- 13
06- 10
07- 7
08- 20
You can debate the merits of the ranking system all you want, or debate the actual talent difference between the #7 class and #20 class. I wouldnt dispute any argument. But my point is that we were getting higher and higher in national recruiting recognition and national prowess, and this class was a step backwards relative to our past classes. That bothers me.
I just finished reading "inside the auburn tigers" latest addition. one article profiled the 2004 recruiting class in a "where are they now" type format. it was a very interesting read--it would have been more interesting if they had included their star rankings at the time. some pretty good talent emerged from that class, but not a bunch. anyway, we got who we got, so War Eagle!
ReplyDeleteJay, Do you think there is anyway Auburn can put 3-4 wins together and make the NIT this year? Team plays hard they just do not know how to win yet.
ReplyDeleteThe NIT is down to 16 teams now and, no, I don't think Auburn can string together four consecutive wins to get into that picture.
ReplyDeleteAlabama's wildly successful class was heavy on in state recruits. That is the reason for alarm with some Auburn fans. If Bama had a mediocre class like Shula always had, then we would probably have pulled some of the in state talent. AU's class would have been much better.
ReplyDeleteThe fact is that Tubs got outrecruited by Sabear even though he has won 6 in a row over Bama. That is not a good sign of things to come.
I think that's an excellent point.
ReplyDeleteI think that if your team consists of the best players in the state, chances are, you are not going to be nearly as good as you think you are. Did the state of Alabama suddenly become the college football capitol of the world?
ReplyDeleteThink about it.
Has anybody noticed the link on Rivals that says "how we rate the players"?
ReplyDeleteAfter I clicked on that link, I thought maybe Tom Cruise had written it. They don't tell you how they rate the players. You know why? Cause they don't know either.
Is a three star from MS the same as a two star from GA? Or would a FL four star be an AL five star? Who the hell knows.
Until they show me how they arrive at these rankings specifically then I'm calling BS. Think about the number of ball players in FL. Pretty hard to stand out with that much talent all around you. However, if you are the best QB in west TN, everybody knows it, because there ain't many good anythings in west TN.
I think you get my point. I would just say as always regarding hyped up sports media ... consider the source.
No, Alabama did not become the football capitAl of the world, but according to ESPN, the state had 9 players in the top 150. That is the fifth most in the country behind FL, TX, GA and CA. Guess how many Auburn got of those 9? NONE.
ReplyDeleteDismiss these recruiting services all you want, but I guarantee if Auburn would have had the best class in the country like Bama, we wouldn't hear a word about how they come up with these rankings.
Look all these rec. sites are are a way for people to make money. You can gauge a kids speed, height,strength,etc. but you can't measure heart and desire. The reality is many of these kids won't make it at this level for whatever reason. Hopefully they get the education that's afforded them.
ReplyDeletethank you anonymous ... you are saying what I am ...
ReplyDeleteJim, in reality, I WOULD be questioning the recruiting class if the UA/AU roles were reversed. In that case I would be saying, "hold the phone everybody. We still have to play some football." I am a middle ground kind of guy.
Here's a riddle ... if two players are basically the same height, the same weight, the same speed, the same basic athletic ability, can jump the same height off the ground, etc., who wins in a head to head contest and why?
Also, what the hell does ESPN know really either. They said Les Miles was going to Michigan, that Ohio State would beat LSU, and that the patriots would win the superbowl. Here's the deal my friend ... people in prominent places can be just as stupid as you think I am.
ReplyDeletealso by the way Mr. Smart Guy Jim In Scranton
ReplyDeleteGet your webster's handy, I am going to teach you something.
CAPITAL is the top of a column or dealing with money
CAPITOL is a the location where the legislative body meets ...
dumba**
Guess how many Auburn got of those 9? NONE.
ReplyDeleteThat's a reasonably important statistic.
I'm not thinking Auburn's class is a total disaster either. They should definately have around 8 or 9 contributors throughout their career (and one hell of a long snapper). The fact that Auburn didn't get much of the in-state talent is alarming and I am fairly confident Tuberville will keep this from happening next year.
ReplyDeleteThe truth is, Saban will always get his players but next year I don't see Tuberville losing out on all of them like he did this year. Saban is the master of recruiting kids early and being relentless.
I wonder if Tuberville has ever considered beefing up his staff with better recruiters. Such as hiring Dabo Swinney from Clemson to replace Greg Knox. I don't know why but Knox doesn't seem like an impressive coach or recruiter.
auburnmath101,
ReplyDeleteI'm glad you weren't my teacher.
Capital or Capitol?
What is the difference between these two? Here’s how it breaks down . . .
The Capital is the city or town that is the seat of government in a state or nation.
The Capitol is the building in which the state legislative body meets.
By the way, I don't think you are stupid, I just disagree with you. Obviously we can't say for sure what these guys will do when they get on campus, but I don't think we got near the talent we have in the past or Bama got this year with all of the in-state talent.
Just my opinion.
About heart? Where's the stat that shows Auburn's '08 recruits have more heart than Bama's '08 class? I keep seeing that. It's not a valid excuse.
ReplyDeleteThere's only one answer, and I don't care how it was arrived at.
Collectively, Auburn got what Auburn deserved. You can point your finger to several variables from September to December. They all say one thing. Auburn was not in a state of stability.
I fully expect Saban to get a run for his money in '09. Who is better than Tuberville with their back against the wall and counted out? Answer: Nobody.
Guys, please lay off the "Saban is master of this and that" stuff. He didn't invent recruiting. He didn't invent bending the rules. He didn't invent the term "process" or the phrase "it is what it is". I invented all that stuff. So praise me.
ReplyDeleteDisheartening comment:
ReplyDelete"We fight that, even as coaches," Tuberville said. "It's a challenge to fight the media hype. We'll be in a meeting and a coach will say, `This guy is a four-star' and I'll say, `Quit looking at stars. Can the kid play for us?' We don't want to sign someone just because they are ranked real high."
Jim ... shutup ... I hate it when you are right. Wanna arm wrestle?
ReplyDeleteFigure this out smarty pants ...
Pick the 2009 and 2010 national champions from the following data:
Number of top 150 recruits by team
Miami 12
Florida 11
USC 10
Clemson 10
Notre Dame 10
Texas 9
Georgia 8
Oklahoma 8
Alabama 7
Ohio State 7
FSU 5
Pittsburgh 4
UCLA 4
LSU 4
Michigan 4
Colorado 3
Arkansas 3
Texas A&M 3
Maryland 2
Auburn 2
N. C. State 2
Southern Miss. 1
Va. Tech 1
Missouri 1
South Carolina 1
Penn State 1
Stanford 1
Washington 1
Tennessee 1
Miss. State 1
Oregon 1
N. Carolina 1
Ok. State 1
Baylor 1
Nebraska 1
Ariz. State 1
Illinois 1
Minnesota 1
Wisconsin 1
Yes ... I know this only adds up to 146. Four people have not declared.
101:
ReplyDeleteWhy?
Here's another one for you ...
ReplyDeleteIn 2006 and 2007, UF signed 28 ESPN Top 150 players. Auburn signed 9.
What is our record against UF the last two years?
Yes, it's 2-0.
anon ... why? because it is all meaningless. that's my point. you can throw around all kinds of numbers and statistics and at the end of the year, they don't mean crap. Notre Dame had the #8 recruiting class in 06 and 07. Remember their record last year?
ReplyDeleteNext year everybody will be scratching their heads trying to figure out what happened, and why all the people in orange and blue are holding up five fingers plus two more fingers. That equals 7. And that's Auburn Math 101.
I,m telling you the the only stat that matters is win and losses, and for a coach who hasn't had a top 5 finish in Tubs, he sure has won a bunch of games against top 10 teams over the last several years who have out recruited him.Like I said earlier, lets see what the hype is in 5 years. By the way how many of Bama's kids have their grades?
ReplyDeleteanon ... are you the same one? I can't figure it out. I agree with you ... why are you arguing with me?
ReplyDelete101:
ReplyDeleteWhy are we considering how well ND did in it's '07 class while we're also saying let's see what happens in 2 or 3 years?
Ah. Yes. Yes.
Wins and losses are what count.
ReplyDeleteTuberville, Inc., has a long and proven track record of successful fall performance and it's always been obvious that they often target players who aren't insanely hyped.
With that said, Tuberville, Inc., lost several of the guys they recruited this year. I think that's bad. I do not think problems like that are cumulative.
A good performance next year immediately "turns things around" and restores order.
Tuberville may want to think twice before flirting with all these other schools. That is an issue with a significant number of recruits.
? What ?
ReplyDeleteHere is the point.
The ranking of your class does not pre-determine your success on the field.
My example: ND
a top 10 class in 2006 and a 1-11 record in 2007 (which is the SECOND year those same recruits played for the team. plenty of time to develop.)
What is it you don't understand?
my last response was to Mr. Crudup, not G money.
ReplyDeleteI agree with G money. Enough said. I'm moving on now.
ReplyDelete19th in the country is a D+? I give this silly little blog an F----.
ReplyDeleteKeep talking about all the nonfootball silliness that apparently interests you so much. You don't know jack about football.
dude ...
ReplyDeleteWell, 101, if we're of the philosophy that we have to give Auburn 2 to 3 years to determine whether or not this '08 class is any good then we should give ND the same consideration.
ReplyDeleteI am damn it. Pay attention. An O6 recruiting class has now played Their second college football season last year.
ReplyDeleteJust forget about it. Just shut up. This is pointless. Which has been my point all along. I am going on vacation. See you knuckleheads in the spring.
101,
ReplyDeleteWhat if they were redshirted? That means 07 wouldve only been their first year.
And by the way, you have to look at more than one recruiting class to determine the strength of a team. Look at ND's recruiting classes before 06.
ReplyDelete05- 27
04- 30
Those guys would have been redshirt juniors or seniors in 07.
Golly gee whiz ... Holy scouting reports Batman. They are right. How are we going to prevent AU from losing all of their games for the next four years.
ReplyDeleteI think we should just go ahead and forfeit all of our games for the next six years. Obviously we are doomed. I think I am going to become a BAMMER. It's hopeless for us now. It's the end of the world. We are doomed.
Auburn's cumulative record for the next four years ... 43-9
The BAMMERS ... 34-18
Dont deflect from the point with sarcasm, 101.
ReplyDeleteMy point wasnt that we were going to be bad due to this recruiting class.
I was merely pointing out the flaws in your argument that an 06 class has played their second year, and the fact that you only cited one recruiting class to back up your argument. You have to tell the whole story, not simply cherry pick one year to make your point.
Jay,
ReplyDeleteHave you seen chris slaughter around campus? How is his weight training/ weight gain going? What do you think his impact will be this comming year?
the fact is, that is just a sample of the argument and I DON'T have time to do the research needed. But, I still know the answer.
ReplyDeleteBig numbers in highschool don't mean anything. How different were you at age 20 than you were at age 18? Quite a bit I imagine.
But according to all of you, we are doomed. That's not sarcasm. That's what I am reading.
I agree you with you AU Math, and while we're at it, lets name USC the number 1 preseason team and Bammer #2. It's all about money, and who can sell the most mags. and newsletters.
ReplyDeleteI'm with AUmath. ESPN is gonna anoint USC as the next Nat.Champ anyway. I vote to just call off the season, and have bowl game for second place. These recruting people are selling something! and judging by the comments, there are people real worried. One class is not going to make or break us, or anyone for that matter. War Eagle, and as I told a friend fear the foot.
ReplyDeletecuz we don't have enough fingers!
ReplyDeleteI'm glad I am not the only person with a little sense of REALISTIC PERSPECTIVE ... well except for the 10 in a row part.
19th in the country is a D+? I give this silly little blog an F----.
ReplyDeleteOuch.
I guess I won't blog ever again.
That's why I said ... dude? ...
ReplyDeleteI am here for you G.
Never have I predicted doom for the AU program based on one recruiting class. I believe the coaching staff is very good at developing the players that they have. My point is that this class could have been better and my hope is that it is not a sign of what is to come. If it becomes a trend that we lose most of the big-time recruits to our rivals, we WIIL start to slip.
ReplyDeleteI will always prefer a higher rated class over a lower one. For example, the '04 class was ranked 31st while the '07 class was 6th. I would say the '07 class of true frosh. outperformed the '04 class of RS Juniors and Seniors.
Contributors from '04-B. Lester, P. Sims, T. Green, C. Evans, J. Bosley
Contributors from '07-A. Carter, M. McNeil, L. Ziemba, K. Burns, W. Byrum, R. Pugh, C. Ramsey
What would happen if we would have had a few bad clsasses like '04?
I hope we don't find out.
I agree completely with Jim in Scranton.
ReplyDeletei just read that lsu fired their b-ball coach. my how the mighty have fallen.
ReplyDelete