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Scouting Auburn-Mississippi State, 9/12

Hey everyone. We're receiving at least token interest in the Twitter feeds, so we'll go forward with that idea. I don't yet have a "modern" phone with "internet" service, but I'll bet getting one soon (ie next week). That should make Twitter even more immediate.

So let's discuss this Auburn-Mississippi State dilemma. I find this game intestesting primarily for the Tony Franklin ramifications. Auburn's offense will be going against a team this weekend that has players, good coaches and a clue. Can Les Tigres overwhelm these kinds of players with that offense?

There is considerable pressure on Franklin these days. He was made out to be guru of innovation -- rightly or wrongly -- and his offense has produced ordinary numbers so far. Nobody is watching this situation more closely that Tommy Tuberville, who has a lot of reputation invested in Franklin.

I'll be surprised to see MSU score more than 10 points.

Let's get to business.

Advantage: Mississippi State
Wesley Carroll is underrated. He has enough guile and experience to make useful things happen on the field. He also has some arm strength. Could he start at Auburn? You'd better believe it.

Advantage: Auburn
This is MSU's strongest overall position because of Anthony Dixon and Christian Ducre. Yet Auburn also carries the ball forceful with Ben Tate and Brad Lester. It's almost a wash. Tate is the best player of the four. Check to Auburn.

Advantage: Auburn
Could it be? I have this unfounded suspicion that the Tigers' receivers are going to make a big step forward at some point soon. Rod Smith, James Swinton and Tommy Trott have been around for ages now. They're catching on.

Advantage: Auburn
Really intriguing overall group. Players and coaches seem unified in their belief that Jason Bosley's move to tackle (and Ryan Pugh's corresponding move to center) actually improves what already was an excellent line.

Advantage: Auburn
Did you see Sen'Derrick Marks chasing down USM's tailback last week? That's a 290-pound tackle showing legitimate pursuit capabilities. As if the Tigers needed more skill here. Tez Doolittle seemed to take another step forward last week, too.

Advantage: Auburn
Has any defender made a bigger jump this season than Josh Bynes? He plays behind Tray Blackmon, which assures playing-time issues, but Auburn now has five linebackers that would start on most SEC teams.

Advantage: Mississippi State
Auburn's first-team group is above average, but MSU's group is the SEC's best. Derek Pegues is a star. Throw in De'Mon Glanton and Dominic Douglas and you have serious skill in the secondary.

Advantage: Auburn#
Auburn is strong in the traditional areas (punting, kicking) and now Robert Dunn has emerged as a home-run threat on punt returns. Special teams have given the Tigers plenty of boosts this season.

Advantage: Auburn
Sylvester Croom is the most unappreciated coach in the SEC outside of his own area. The guy has done really nice work cleaning up Jackie Sherrill's mess. Still, Tommy Tuberville has accomplished more and his team is a threat to win the West. MSU? Not so much.

Wesley Carroll (No. 13)
6-1, 190, Soph.
Last week: 15-of-23 for 158 yards, 2 TDs (vs. Southeastern Louisiana)
Scouting report: Carroll is a surprise in some ways. He was mostly overlooked as a high-school senior in Ft. Lauderdale, Fla., because he didn't have any particular skill that stood out. Two years later, he looks like a steal. Carroll has at least average arm strength and above-average running speed. What makes him so useful is his ability to make thoughtful decisions. He is rarely intercepted (though he opened the season with two picks against Louisiana Tech) and understands his limitations. He doesn't panic. MSU's offense has grown to savor Carroll's consistency.

WR Tommy Trott (No. 5)
6-5, 242, Jr.
Last week: 3 catches for 44 yards (vs. Southern Miss)
Scouting report: Though Trott technically is a tight end, he has surprising grace on the field. Coaches often praise Trott for running correct routes and finding ways to exploit open space. Getting him the ball has been problematic for reasons that coaches and players couldn't explain. Trott finally broke out against USM last weekend with three receptions. He can be a major passing-game asset if used properly.

CB Jerraud Powers (No. 8)
5-9, 191, Jr.
Last week: 8 tackles, 1 interception (vs. Southern Miss)
Scouting report: Powers doesn't have the size, but he certainly understands how to defend against the pass. The junior thinks along with quarterbacks in real time, which allows him to move into correct position almost all the time. Long arms and strong legs allow Powers to make plays against taller receivers. He's among the team's most fit players. Powers can play an entire game if needed.

Auburn offense
Speed will be important this week. MSU's top defender, middle linebacker Jamar Chaney, is out for the season because of injury. The Bulldogs have been using a variety of players to fill that hole, which affects how MSU's front seven works from snap to snap. Auburn will work quickly to limit the Bulldogs' ability to re-align prior to each snap. Quarterback Chris Todd must be careful when challenging the Bulldogs deep because they're loaded with veteran guys in the secondary. Auburn has a clear advantage with its running game. The pace along with the Tigers' stout offensive should create plenty of big-play opportunities for Ben Tate and Brad Lester.

Auburn defense
Several Auburn players began wearing hard hats this season to emphasize the team's need for dirty work up front. This game will challenge that work ethic. MSU loves to run the ball. It has a decent offensive line and two excellent tailbacks. Quarterback Wesley Carroll also can run. Auburn must find ways to win one-on-one matchups along the line of scrimmage. That creates detrimental clutter for the Bulldogs' running game. Carroll can make plays in the passing game, but he isn't known as a deep thrower. Auburn's first-team defensive backs should be able to handle that. Stopping the tailbacks, though, is more difficult.


Blogger AUnMobilz (CAM-"Da Man") said...

Excellent anaylsis... and i offer my own .02 cents analysis:

Offense: i think we will open the play book up a little more with misdirection plays with the read option by Chris Todd to catch the back side flow and hit TT on crossing routes... also think we can get to the edge and expose the small defensive ends for MSU.

Defense: if we can continue to be able to stop the run like we did last year and force them to throw and with get pressure with just our 4 down lineman then that allows CPR to put 8 in coverage and limits WC on open spaces to put the ball.

Special Teams:
Robert Dunn finally gets it... Patience is a Virtue.....

Players of the Game:

Jeraud Powers/ Josh Bynes on Defense

Brad Lester/ Rod Smith on Offesne

8:57 AM  
Blogger Jay G. Tate said...

You need a blog, bud!

9:01 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...


I agree with your analysis except I can't figure out where all the love for Wesley Carrol comes from. Other than the Tennessee game last year that guy is mediocore on his best day, during the Ole Miss game he even got pulled for Henig, who finished the year with a steller 1 touchdown and 9 interceptions. I think after 3 years of covering Brandon Cox and now the slightly faster right hand version of him in Chris Todd anybody looks good at quarterback.

9:26 AM  
Blogger Jay G. Tate said...

... and that's all I'm comparing Carroll to!

9:44 AM  
Blogger ADP said...

I really don't know why, I just have this feeling. AU puts it together this weekend and still holds some in reserve for the Corn Dogs next week.

AU 41

Where in the world is Crudup?

10:30 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Crudup is headed on a cruise guys. Wish him luck.

10:34 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

So, basically your saying that au's receivers have the edge because, well, you think so.

The actual numbers say you're wrong.

10:38 AM  
Blogger poundcakeface said...

we beat y'all at home last year and you think you'll put up 41 on us after you only put up 27 versus southern miss at home last weekend? pretty sheepish if you ask me. on paper auburn should win but nowadays you can't count the dogs out...especially at home.

10:39 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...


i'm sure you would like to get pressure with your 4 down linemen and drop 8 into coverage. something tells me, though, that won't happen this weekend. hopefully the refs will notice what's going on...

11:01 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The ACTUAL numbers also say Auburn is 2-0 and MSU is 1-1. If you just look at ACTUAL numbers, I say Auburn, as their team record indicates, has the advantage. I think the MSU Bulldog fans have gotten a little cocky with their couple of upsets over the last few years. I think this year, they get spanked like the second-rate SEC team that they are. I believe Auburn shows that they belong in the top 10 and that MSU shows that they belong with the Vandy's, Arkansas's, and South Carolina's of the the bottom of the SEC food chain.

11:02 AM  
Blogger cajundawg said...

Auburn has the talent... of that there is no doubt but for you to predict a 41-9 thrashing...sheesh what a homer call that is... do actually remember what happened at your place last season?

11:09 AM  
Blogger Jay G. Tate said...

It's not reasonable, in my opinion, to assess groups of skill players based on a sample size of two games.

Both ULM and USM are significantly better than Southeastern Louisiana. After four SEC games, we can start comparing numbers in a meaningful way.

This works in Auburn's favor with wideouts: Numbers haven't been great.

This works in MSU's favor with quarterbacks: Numbers haven't been great.

11:10 AM  
Blogger Jay G. Tate said...

Also, I think Sly Croom is an outstanding coach.

I have a ton of respect for the way he's doing business in Starkville. Following Jackie Sherrill is the tallest of orders. Good lord.

11:12 AM  
Blogger cajundawg said...

I think the MSU Bulldog fans have gotten a little cocky with their couple of upsets over the last few years.

WOW! Anonymous you spew smack with wild abandon... I believe your boy analyzed this game very accurately, execpt my difference with him is I believe we have the advantage at RB, but like he said, it is almost a wash! This game is going to be a lot closer than any AU fan is comfortable with... I hope for a win and yes it would be an upset for us, but how can we be 'cocky' when we are merely supporting our team and what gives you the 'right' to say where we 'belong' within the order of the SEC?

11:16 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

cajundawg said:
do actually remember what happened at your place last season?

Do you remember what happened at your place the last three times AU has visited?

I agree it might not be 41-9 but I don't see MSU winning.

11:24 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Croom an outstanding coach? Hmmm...


Cruise, eh? That would be nice.

11:28 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Do you Auburn fans really believe that your going to win tomorrow? Come on! We've got the Gulf Coast Offense and it's captain, Woody McCorvey, on our side. It takes a serious offensive gameplan to put up 14 points on mighty LA Tech and 34 on SE LA. lol

11:34 AM  
Blogger Scott M. Brannan said...

if MSU had actually shown up againt LA Tech then there would be cause for concern. granted MSU had 5 turnovers but LAT had 3. 2007's loss was an abberation due to our 5 turnovers. that won't happen this year.

i expect a physical game with it being close until late... 24-6 AU.

11:46 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Please no orange pants in Starkville this year!

11:49 AM  
Blogger Scott M. Brannan said...

tennessee is the team in the orange pants bubba and you see how it's worked out for them, 0-2 (vs. LSU in SECC, 2007, and @ UCLA).

11:52 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think it will be closer that Auburn wants it to be. The better running back IS ANTHONY DIXON he carried your defensive line for 103 yards last time we played. He can and will do it again. Both offenses are sputtering along leaning on the defense and the run game. I pick State 17 Auburn 10 because State knows how to win with just a run game and Auburn will try to force the passing game into a very good secondary.

11:56 AM  
Blogger poundcakeface said...

should be a good defensive battle. the bulldogs have more offensive talent than USM, who put up 13 AT Auburn. Auburn has looked mediocre on offense and above average on defense. should be MSU 13+/-7 and auburn 17+/-7 with turnovers making the game. SLU is no LaMonroe and USM is the equivalent in my mind, but the fact is that this is the first true test for auburn and State, both of whom have proven NOTHING so far. stop acting like you've already won the west. you are just asking for us to come back on here and rub it in your face if we win tomorrow.

stay classy, land grant brethren.

11:56 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I agree with Scottie, hard fought game but State doesn't have the dogs on defense anymore to hang with us all game, their offense is still below average as always. I'll say AU wins 27-13 with Miss St. scoring a late touchdown to make the score look a little closer than it should be.

It is nice to have fans from opposing teams on here, it keeps things interesting. I hope the trend continues throughout the season.

12:05 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I expect to see lots of short passes, lots of screens, and plenty of run plays from the offense this week. AU knows better than to try Todd's weakened arm against one of the better SEC secondaries. This will be a classic ball control game and as long as AU doesn't turn it over they win 24-7. AU basically gave MSU the game last year on a silver platter and MSU barely won. After last week's turnover woes, don't expect AU to just give the ball away this year. MSU fans getting cocky? LOL. I doubt that. Only Bama fans have the ability to foolishly believe their team is way better than it really is year after year!

12:09 PM  
Blogger Loganville Tiger said...

The play book in open a little wider this week. Less turnovers for the O - two take-aways for the D. Special teams get is down close for a short field. MSU has a stout running tandem, but is over matched by AU's D. State gets close to the end zone but can only settle for 3's.

Auburn on top 24 - 6

12:25 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You are talking about the same game in which we lost our starting QB and had to play a true freshman and a juco-transfer and still beat you? At your house? Auburn did not give us the game, our D took it from you. Plain and simple.

Anyway, hope to see a good crowd in Starkville tomorrow. Ya'll come by and enjoy The Junction (a great new tradition at MSU).

May the best team win. Go Dogs!

12:26 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Oh yeah JDinmacon,
I forgot to compliment you on your fine UAT comment. It is so true.

UAT - University of Alabama Tuscaloosa

12:29 PM  
Blogger Jay G. Tate said...

I think 24-6 sounds good.

I'll go with that, too.

12:36 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

At least this year we won't have a DE going for the sack record on every play and letting Dixon run right by him every time.

The worst play last year, and Groves even admitted to it was the 3rd and 14 play right before the final Miss State TD, where they got a 15 yard run right at Groves and Groves said he was running for the QB and didn't even know what play was called.

1:00 PM  
Blogger Jay G. Tate said...

The tailback was Ducre, but that play unfolded exactly how you described.

Not Quentin Groves' finest moment.

1:20 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Question for you Aburn folks. Does your football team travel by bus, plane or do they just jump on Tubbs back while he flaps the wings (aka ears) on the sides of his head?

Have school officials ever considered letting Tubbs fly in before games instead of the eagle?

1:26 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Heh... yes... Air Tubs.
If you think Tub's ears are sacred around here, you're wrong. This blog shoots straight, no Tubs spin here.

Ok, so Auburn's strength on defense is, and always has been, Run Defense. I doubt Dixon - or the entire Bulldog team for that matter - eclipses the 80 yard rushing mark tomorrow. Auburn's previous two opponents were passing teams. There's no comparison.

On Offense, Auburn may struggle against the Bulldogs (See? No spin here.) but only if we force the passing game against MSU's D-Backfield. And then, only if CTodd throws off his back foot like he did in game one. We'll need a good mix of passing along with that toss-to-the-runningback option thing that we've seen a little of so far.

The Bulldog's O and D? Irrelevant if Auburn executes well.

1:51 PM  
Blogger Scott M. Brannan said...

wareaglerk......i had that play blocked out of my memory. horrendous play by Q. arrghhh.

1:53 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wow. One flukey win last year after 6 straight years of beatdowns, and State fans start talking smack.

1:54 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Q was still better than McClover at stopping the run. However last year when that sack record was getting close, he became far too obssesed with the record for his own good.

1:58 PM  
Blogger poundcakeface said...

in the SEC a win on the road is never "little". if you agree with that statement then last year's win at auburn was not a "little" win for State. i don't think any State fans are getting cocky. we just want some respect. we never lost to y'all when i was in school in the late 90's yet somehow y'all only remember the times you've won.

2:47 PM  
Blogger cajundawg said...

cajundawg said:
do actually remember what happened at your place last season?

Do you remember what happened at your place the last three times AU has visited? I agree it might not be 41-9 but I don't see MSU winning.

Which was exactly my point! I took offense to the 'beat down' mentality you put forth in your comment! I believe AU has more talent and 'should' win the game and my comment of 'Do you remember what happened last year?' was to jog your memories that last year you had more talent as well and were picked to 'smash' us... but it doesn't always go the way we would hope! I agree with you in that this game is going to be a lot closer than MOST AU fans would like it to be!

11:24 AM

3:08 PM  
Blogger Scott M. Brannan said...


we had won 6 in a row until last year. you'll have to forgive us for forgetting 97-2000. :) those 97 & 2000 games were miserable for us for sure. 97 was probably the worst offensive game i have ever witnessed by the tigers and i'm sure most of us around here have blacked the entire 98 & 99 seasons out of our minds for good. painful.

3:14 PM  
Blogger cajundawg said...

Jay g. Tate: You surprise me, the 'mayor' of our blog over here refuses the prognostication schtick... I admire your chudzpa!

My pick (remember I'm a homer!)
MSU - 17
AU - 21

A late turnover seals the deal... Could be 14-10 as well, depending how good each team's D is...

3:17 PM  
Blogger Jay G. Tate said...

I don't think MSU's win at Auburn last year was a fluke. MSU's last drive: 10 plays, 44 yards ... all runs from Ducre and Dixon.

That's not a fluke. That's called a gutting -- pure and simple.

3:18 PM  
Blogger Jay G. Tate said...

@ cajundawg: Veazey is smarter than me. That's why he refrains.

He does one hell of a job over there. That's an incredibly detailed and thorough examination of MSU sports.

3:20 PM  
Blogger cajundawg said...

scottie b in tennessee said...
cakeface, we had won 6 in a row until last year. you'll have to forgive us for forgetting 97-2000. :) those 97 & 2000 games were miserable for us for sure. 97 was probably the worst offensive game i have ever witnessed by the tigers and i'm sure most of us around here have blacked the entire 98 & 99 seasons out of our minds for good. painful.

Well then you can relate to how we have tried to block things out since 2001... Yes you have a somewhat richer tradition that's a given, but we have had our moments and sometimes they have come at your expense... and visa versa!

Hope ya'll lose this week, but I do wish you good luck NEXT week when you host those ARROGANT Tigers from Baton Rouge... sheesh they think the world revolves around LSU... makes me sick!

3:21 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Here's my two cents.

Many questions still loom.

Does Auburn have enough of a passing game to balance the offense and score points consistently?

Does the defense have enough depth to hold up against a physical team like MSU?

Can the "special" special teams continue the great play from the first two games?

Well, what do we now. Chris Todd will start. Kodi Burns will play in spots. The running backs are on their way to having a big year. The Defense has been very good during the first two games and has handled two teams with spread offenses well. The jury is still out on the wide receiver corps (save the consistent play of Rod Smith).

Mississippi State played badly against Louisana Tech and paid for it in the form of a loss. Wesley Carroll (MSU QB) is good when he has time. The running backs for MSU are good as well. The o-line didn't play well. The MSU defense is a mess except for the group of speedy and solid DBs.

Earlier in the week I picked a little more a spread in this game, but I think it will be a lot closer.

MY PICK: Auburn 23 Mississippi State 13

3:21 PM  
Blogger cajundawg said...

We love our mayor! He's the man!

3:22 PM  
Blogger cajundawg said...

Mr Sensible... its hard to argue with a solid analysis like that! Although my heart forces me to pick State to win my head will not allow it! AU 21 State 17

3:23 PM  
Blogger Scott M. Brannan said...


glad we understand each other. i'm really looking forward to tomorrow night's game. of course, i hope you guys get crushed tomorrow but you'll have no bigger cheerleader come nov. when MSU goes to tuscaloosa than this guy right here! i've always liked the way coach croom was going about his business down there. i for one was pretty happy he never made it over there to bama.

3:32 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thanks for the compliments CajunDawg

3:33 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I don't think Auburn offensively has played a worse 1st half than they did in Starkville in 2000. Zero first downs at halftime. Zero. Rudi Johnson couldn't find a hole anywhere and Leard was getting tossed to the ground on every play.

Too bad doesn't still exist? Fred Smoot was ahead of his time with the online trash talking.

3:52 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I am glad you mentioned Funny thing is, I found my smootsmack t-shirt the other day. Man, I loved the smack that he came up with.

I am ready for some football.

4:12 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Oh man, how I loved listening to Fred Smoot talk trash.

5:12 PM  
Blogger Jay G. Tate said...

FYI ... I'll be available for one-on-many AU/MSU consultations tonight here at the HABOTN.

I have no friends in Columbus and the other beat writers are staying in Starkville. So come chat with me later.

5:15 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Jay, you hit the nail on the head. It was all Dixon and Ducre that last drive and Aub couldn't stop it. Hope McCorvey and Croom remember that. Also, last I checked, State is ranked 16th in total D, and Aub is ranked 28th. Sure, State played 2 scrubs, but still has a pretty stout D.

5:45 PM  
Blogger ADP said...

Lots of State boys on here today. Hmmm.

Everybody's break downs are great. Still goin' with the gut on this one. Complete ice whoopin'.

AU 41

5:51 PM  
Blogger ron mexico said...

53 comments is pretty good. The temperature continues to rise on the HABOTN.

I'll be interested to see how Auburn's defense responds to a physical running game. We've played two spread teams and practiced against one all year long. Auburn should try to stop the run and make wesley carroll throw the ball, who is terrible in my opinion. Jay, I definately disagree with Miss St. getting the check mark in the quarterback category but so far your pregame analysis have been spot on so far, so i'll guess we'll see.

Prediction 31-14.

6:21 PM  
Blogger AUnMobilz (CAM-"Da Man") said...

My Score Prediction:

6:25 PM  
Blogger AUnMobilz (CAM-"Da Man") said...

Thanks for the Addaboy!!!!
No thanks i like chatting to much on the HABOTN!!!
I'm a HOTTIE!!!

6:27 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Shout out to Phred. And you may miss it since I'm the 57th poster. I like the number 57. However, I would like the number 9 better.

On the QBs, again, about 90% of the teams we play will have better QB play. I just don't think MSU with Wesley Carrol is one of those teams.

Auburn will dominate this game defensively. The offense is still up in the air although it made vast improvements in the passing game next week. Auburn needs to make the passing game work again in this one to set off the sonic boom on MSU.

8:29 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

*last week

8:29 PM  
Blogger Scott M. Brannan said...

jg, i'm diggin the twitter updates. it took me a full day to grasp the concept but i'm 'bout it 'bout it now.

enjoy columbus....ausome. oh, btw, gas prices here in knoxville jumped from $3.649 on the way to work this morning to $4.599 on the way home. plus, that same station was a ghost town with no gas to be had what's the gas situation like on the road?

8:52 PM  
Blogger ADP said...

Peace to all my Hottie brothers and to our fearless leader the Great G. Just remember ... You can't stop stupid.

Galveston is proving that New Orleans is not the only place with a healthy population of stupid people.

9:23 PM  
Blogger Scott M. Brannan said...

peace be to you too phred. nightie nite.

9:28 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

ron mexico said... make wesley carroll throw the ball, who is terrible in my opinion.

How can you say that carroll is terrible when he came one pass from breaking the freshman record of pass atmp. w/ out a pick? and i dont think auburn has really proven its self on offense so unless they pull it together the Dawgs will stay in and maybe pull it out

10:50 PM  
Blogger Jay G. Tate said...

Wesley Carroll is not terrible.

No Auburn fan can run that smack. Not with what Les Tigres have right now.

11:10 PM  
Blogger ron mexico said...

He came one pass attempt away from breaking a freshman record without an interception. He finished with 9 tds and 7 ints is what really matters.

I'm not claiming to have seen every game miss. st. has played but when i have seen wesley carroll play he has been terrible. And Auburn's below average quarterback situation has nothing to do with my opinion.

1:06 AM  
Blogger Jay G. Tate said...

Love the new avatar, RM.

9:26 AM  
Blogger ron mexico said...

gracias amigo

10:12 AM  

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