GAME DAY: Auburn @ LSU
Hey everyone. Welcome to Game Day No. 8. Your Auburn Tigers will play at spacious, old and loud Tiger Stadium in a matter of hours.
The game will be televised by ESPN2. It'll be in HD, too.
I'm planning to head out around 3:30 p.m.
Here is my guide to Le Game:
****************************
AUBURN at LSU
When: 6:30 p.m. today
Where: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, La.
Current Line: LSU by 7.5
Opening line: LSU by 8.
On the air: TV – ESPN2. Radio — WLWI-FM 92.3, WMSP-AM 740
FOUR DOWN TERRITORY
1. Auburn is a team in limbo right now. Wins in the first five games
provided confidence that coach Gene Chizik's ideas worked. The
offensive clicked. Defensive problems were a real issue, but gobs of
points soothed the pain. Now the offense is in the tank. Auburn scored
a single offensive touchdown against Kentucky last week. It seems that
opponents have learned how to defend Gus Malzahn's offense. Everything
this team aspires to accomplish this season rests on its ability to
score points. Fourteen is not enough. Fourteen won't be enough.
2. Chris Todd should be on a milk carton. Auburn fans have seen this
story before -- the hyped quarterback starts off strongly then fades
badly at in October. Is this 2008? The problem then was Todd's
shoulder, which finally because a season-ending nuisance. Will that
happen again? Todd says his shoulder is fine. Chizik says the shoulder
is fine. So does Malzahn. Still, facts are facts. Todd has missed at
least a dozen straightforward throws during the past two weeks. If
that trend continues, Auburn will struggle to win more than six games
this season.
3. Auburn's defensive struggles are overstated. When Chizik hired
Malzahn and promised to create the same frenzied offense seen at
Tulsa, defensive regression was all but assured. The Tigers no longer
are a ball-control team. The defense's job is tougher now. Touchdown
prevention was the theme prior to 2009. Now it's all about touchdown
management -- simply slowing the touchdown flow. It's unfair to say
the Tigers' defense choked against Kentucky. It allowed 21 points.
That's supposed to be enough.
4. Auburn has become a sociological experiment of sorts during the
past three weeks. A 5-0 start stoked expectations well beyond where
they should have been. This is a flawed team and has been a flawed
team all along. Then came the loss at Arkansas. The home loss to
Kentucky. Now message boards are loaded with discussions about
Chizik's worthiness, Malzahn's ability and Ted Roof's competence.
Those three guys are working with the same 77 scholarship players and
running the same schemes. If Auburn finishes 6-6, some will say it was
a disaster. I'll say that's one game ahead of what I predicted in
July.
KEY MATCHUP
Auburn offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn vs. LSU defensive coordinator
John Chavis
Malzahn's offense is crippled. The substantive pass plays that
characterized the Tigers' first five games have all but disappeared.
The problem? Part is quarterback Chris Todd, who suddenly is
struggling to make routine throws. Another element of Auburn's problem
involves strategy. Arkansas and Kentucky used few blitzes and played
reactive defense, which suffocated Auburn's offense. Receivers who had
been open during the first month now have defenders in tow. It's up to
Malzahn to devise new twists that expose that defensive strategy.
Chavis, who managed several excellent defenses at Tennessee, surely
will follow the blueprint provided by Arkansas and Kentucky. Malzahn
now must evolve.
PLAYER OF THE WEEK
Tommy Trott
TE, 6-5, 245, Sr.
Trott has been one of the most intriguing player-development stories
of the past 10 years. He arrived at Auburn as a ready-made receiver
who couldn't block. Over time, he has become a major blocking asset.
He is a major reason why the Tigers' rushing attack works so well.
Defenses have allocated more resources toward shutting down Gus
Malzahn's deep-pass emphasis, which means areas behind the linebackers
are open more often that before. That could create an ideal
opportunity for Trott to emerge as a passing-game threat. He has the
hands to make plays. He seems to understand the offense well. The only
obstacle seems to be Malzahn's infatuation with wideouts Darvin Adams
and Terrell Zachery.
BY THE NUMBERS
1 -- Number of players who signed with LSU out of an Alabama high
school. (Dothan native Josh Williford plays offensive line.)
2 -- Number of linebackers (Craig Stevens and Joshua Bynes) who
already have more tackles this season than in all of 2008.
5 -- Number of sacks allowed by Auburn this season, which is seventh
fewest among FBS teams.
7 -- Number of night games Auburn has played this season, which
already is second-most in school history. The record is eight.
9 -- Number of wins, out of its previous 14 games, that Auburn has earned
against teams ranked in the Associated Press' top 10.
92 -- Combined number of career starts for Auburn's first-team offensive line.
553 -- Yards needed for Ben Tate to catch Joe Cribbs (2,815) for
fourth place on Auburn's career rushing list.
PREDICTION
I've been wrong during the past two weeks. Totally wrong. My track
record isn't the best, but I still believe Auburn is going to surprise
someone soon. LSU is not a great team this season. Its statistical
markers aren't indicative of a team ranked among the nation's 10 best,
so there will be a correction of sorts at some point. Why not today?
Auburn's defense played OK against Kentucky. LSU's attack is less
formidable. It's reasonable to believe the Tigers could hold LSU to 21
points or less this weekend. Can the offense get itself together long
enough to build four scoring drives? I think it can. Smooth
performances will be rare given Chris Todd's problems, but Auburn will
put everything together at some point. Conditions seem ripe for a
revival tonight.
Auburn 24, LSU 21.
Photo credit: Todd Van Emst/Auburn University
Questions? Comments? Post directly to the blog below or email me at jgtate@gannett.com.
The game will be televised by ESPN2. It'll be in HD, too.
I'm planning to head out around 3:30 p.m.
Here is my guide to Le Game:
****************************
AUBURN at LSU
When: 6:30 p.m. today
Where: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, La.
Current Line: LSU by 7.5
Opening line: LSU by 8.
On the air: TV – ESPN2. Radio — WLWI-FM 92.3, WMSP-AM 740
FOUR DOWN TERRITORY
1. Auburn is a team in limbo right now. Wins in the first five games
provided confidence that coach Gene Chizik's ideas worked. The
offensive clicked. Defensive problems were a real issue, but gobs of
points soothed the pain. Now the offense is in the tank. Auburn scored
a single offensive touchdown against Kentucky last week. It seems that
opponents have learned how to defend Gus Malzahn's offense. Everything
this team aspires to accomplish this season rests on its ability to
score points. Fourteen is not enough. Fourteen won't be enough.
2. Chris Todd should be on a milk carton. Auburn fans have seen this
story before -- the hyped quarterback starts off strongly then fades
badly at in October. Is this 2008? The problem then was Todd's
shoulder, which finally because a season-ending nuisance. Will that
happen again? Todd says his shoulder is fine. Chizik says the shoulder
is fine. So does Malzahn. Still, facts are facts. Todd has missed at
least a dozen straightforward throws during the past two weeks. If
that trend continues, Auburn will struggle to win more than six games
this season.
3. Auburn's defensive struggles are overstated. When Chizik hired
Malzahn and promised to create the same frenzied offense seen at
Tulsa, defensive regression was all but assured. The Tigers no longer
are a ball-control team. The defense's job is tougher now. Touchdown
prevention was the theme prior to 2009. Now it's all about touchdown
management -- simply slowing the touchdown flow. It's unfair to say
the Tigers' defense choked against Kentucky. It allowed 21 points.
That's supposed to be enough.
4. Auburn has become a sociological experiment of sorts during the
past three weeks. A 5-0 start stoked expectations well beyond where
they should have been. This is a flawed team and has been a flawed
team all along. Then came the loss at Arkansas. The home loss to
Kentucky. Now message boards are loaded with discussions about
Chizik's worthiness, Malzahn's ability and Ted Roof's competence.
Those three guys are working with the same 77 scholarship players and
running the same schemes. If Auburn finishes 6-6, some will say it was
a disaster. I'll say that's one game ahead of what I predicted in
July.
KEY MATCHUP
Auburn offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn vs. LSU defensive coordinator
John Chavis
Malzahn's offense is crippled. The substantive pass plays that
characterized the Tigers' first five games have all but disappeared.
The problem? Part is quarterback Chris Todd, who suddenly is
struggling to make routine throws. Another element of Auburn's problem
involves strategy. Arkansas and Kentucky used few blitzes and played
reactive defense, which suffocated Auburn's offense. Receivers who had
been open during the first month now have defenders in tow. It's up to
Malzahn to devise new twists that expose that defensive strategy.
Chavis, who managed several excellent defenses at Tennessee, surely
will follow the blueprint provided by Arkansas and Kentucky. Malzahn
now must evolve.
PLAYER OF THE WEEK
Tommy Trott
TE, 6-5, 245, Sr.
Trott has been one of the most intriguing player-development stories
of the past 10 years. He arrived at Auburn as a ready-made receiver
who couldn't block. Over time, he has become a major blocking asset.
He is a major reason why the Tigers' rushing attack works so well.
Defenses have allocated more resources toward shutting down Gus
Malzahn's deep-pass emphasis, which means areas behind the linebackers
are open more often that before. That could create an ideal
opportunity for Trott to emerge as a passing-game threat. He has the
hands to make plays. He seems to understand the offense well. The only
obstacle seems to be Malzahn's infatuation with wideouts Darvin Adams
and Terrell Zachery.
BY THE NUMBERS
1 -- Number of players who signed with LSU out of an Alabama high
school. (Dothan native Josh Williford plays offensive line.)
2 -- Number of linebackers (Craig Stevens and Joshua Bynes) who
already have more tackles this season than in all of 2008.
5 -- Number of sacks allowed by Auburn this season, which is seventh
fewest among FBS teams.
7 -- Number of night games Auburn has played this season, which
already is second-most in school history. The record is eight.
9 -- Number of wins, out of its previous 14 games, that Auburn has earned
against teams ranked in the Associated Press' top 10.
92 -- Combined number of career starts for Auburn's first-team offensive line.
553 -- Yards needed for Ben Tate to catch Joe Cribbs (2,815) for
fourth place on Auburn's career rushing list.
PREDICTION
I've been wrong during the past two weeks. Totally wrong. My track
record isn't the best, but I still believe Auburn is going to surprise
someone soon. LSU is not a great team this season. Its statistical
markers aren't indicative of a team ranked among the nation's 10 best,
so there will be a correction of sorts at some point. Why not today?
Auburn's defense played OK against Kentucky. LSU's attack is less
formidable. It's reasonable to believe the Tigers could hold LSU to 21
points or less this weekend. Can the offense get itself together long
enough to build four scoring drives? I think it can. Smooth
performances will be rare given Chris Todd's problems, but Auburn will
put everything together at some point. Conditions seem ripe for a
revival tonight.
Auburn 24, LSU 21.
Photo credit: Todd Van Emst/Auburn University
Questions? Comments? Post directly to the blog below or email me at jgtate@gannett.com.
125 Comments:
substance
And plenty of it.
great read...
any given gameday.... thats why we play the games..
Lets do it!!!!
jhag, how did the facebook argument do? Did you get slapped?
I wish it were an early kickoff today, I'm ready to get this thing going.
Why does Chris Fowler hate teams from the south?
DWWD....BEAT LSU!
I would certainly take JGT's prediction of 24-21 AU and run with it. I'm certainly concerned about CT's shoulder, and I'd love to see Ben Tate get all 553 yards TONIGHT!
Down with corndogs.
War Eagle.
Great read there JGT - now that IS SUBSTANCE!! Very well thought out.
Your argument relies on Auburn finding a median between the AU team of the past two weeks and the one we saw for the first 5 - and LSU being the average LSU we all think they are and not the actual top 10 team the poll voters think.
I predict Auburn does smooth out the spikes in play we have seen so far this season - but this relies Heavily on no stupid penalties we have seen kill drives when we needed them most and some consistency in the passing game. If we can keep LSU's offense off the field (more so our defense as to rest), our D can limit points scored.
Prediction? History has shown this is a tight game when the final score is posted, I just doen't see us being on top.
AU - 24
LSU - 30
LT
Not sure why, but I feel so much better today than I did at this time last week. I never thought we would lose to KY, but I just didn't have a good feeling last week.
We may lose big time tonight, but I have a good feeling. Maybe it is our leader's prediction of a win!
Go Tigers!! The orange and blue kind!!!
Great write up setting up the game, Jay. I really enjoyed it.
LSU's defense is going to be a lot better than Arkansas and Kentucky. Luckily, the LSU offense is performing on a high school level right now.
If this turns into a shootout, I think we win. If it's a defensive, field position battle, I think they win.
It'll probably be somewhere in between, and come down to special teams.
LSU controls the clock with the running game. Their defense tackles very well. Holliday is probably going to be worn out by halftime from running long distances on returns. I hope Jay is correct on his score, but I don't see it happening.
I am surprised to see LSU has only one player on the roster from an Alabama high school. I always assumed they recruited more heavily in the state, esp. south Alabama.
Good stuff in the pre-game report, Jay.
What up,
Jay, watching Auburn Everyday tv program, have you seen that show? Its no Scorcese piece, but its interesting, its gives a small piece of insight.
Morning Hotties!
Great substance from Jay G. this morning and looking for great substance from the Auburn Tigers tonight!!!
WAR EAGLE!!!!!!!
Desmond Howard and Kirk picked Auburn, Kirk likes Auburn and Chizik, Corso said we would lose by one. Fowler trashed us and said we couldnt beat UK so he has no hope for us the rest of the season.
I catch AU Everday Tivo'ed on Fridays - No Oliver Stone, but does show what is behind the curtain. You can see all the coaches in a whole different light most times.
Tiger,
yea just saw a segment that put things in perspective. Showed Chris Todd with his family hugging their necks after last weeks lost with Gus Malzahn next to them. These kids hate losing worse than we do, This teams deserves a winning season and a bowl game and I hope they get it.
You can tell watching that show the kids love these new coaches and trust in them.
Forget LSU of yesterday.... they always show up when they play AU...
they will kick our but unless we are flawless... just a fact... we bring out the best in LSU
The coaches are preaching Togetherness and trying to avoid the dissension and fracture the team experienced last year. I see them accomplishing that.
Whether he picks Auburn or not is beside the point, this, however, regarding Chris Fowler is not:
Le douche magnifique.
LT- I just don't see LSU scoring 30, not because of our defense but because of their offense.
42 miles to Baton Rouge. Stopped for a coke break when we got in La and my first encounter was with a Bama fan. I just can't get away from them.
Loganville,
It's a great first step. We were supposed to stink this year, so let's get the TEAM aspect fixed, and then start getting TALENT and coach 'em up. I wasn't sure when Chizik was hired if he'd be able to do that, but I am happy so far. I HATE losing to Arkan sass, and I am in denial about my first loss ever to Kentuck. And I'm nervous about LSWho tonight. We definitely bring out the best in them.
Watch out for Tenn today.,.... ya never know....
You may be right Nova - I can see a scenario where my prediction is cut in half - either way, we ain't on top.
I hope I am in for a good surprise.....
LT
Kathy,
In the event of a nuclear attack, I believe cockroaches and Bama fans will be the only survivors.
Hopefully, only the cockroaches will reproduce.
Corso just said Arkansas "Shot their wad last week"
Can he do that?
kirk is die 'in
There's an inherent danger of having a guy who's old and had a stroke recently on live TV.
Nothing says Illinois-Purdue like Pam Ward.
Well said AUFan. Bring home a W Kathy.
Jay G ... some of your best work bro. Loved it.
I'm serving corndogs for dinner. Everytime something bad happens, I will bite a corndog. That should turn the MO in our favor. VOODOO on LSU.
We win tonight. I feel it.
Y'all should go give this guy a hard time. He's asking for it.
http://kingfish1935.blogspot.com/
LSU fan, who hates Auburn.
The weather here is great: Sunny, 60s.
Terrelle Pryor is an awful passer.
Just finished watching the Auburn Everyday show. I love these coaches!
A few things to say before heading to the ppkin patch with the girls:
1. Beat LSU!
2. We need you Chris Todd....you are out only hope.
3. Watch for a Temnessee upset victory today.
Finally....
4. FU Tuberville. Please don't make me continue the daily statement.
War Damn Eagle!!!
Highlight of the morning so far was watching Herbstriet lose it when Corso said "shot their wad".
I watched the 1994 game last night. ANYTHING can happen.
I kinda liked Lavell Edwards putting the cougar head on, too.
The 1994 game was amazing. I was a freshman sitting in the crowd and was in a state of shock every time Jamie Howard would throw the ball.
Curley Hallman = Severe brain trauma
Lol @ Eddie. "Help us Chris Todd, you're our only hope." That's gold.
Well, it took all of one play for a bad call in the Ole Miss-Arkansas game.
JayG.....outstanding conversational review of the AU situation. The clarity in that review is borne out of an unbiased viewpoint.
Eddie...We absolutely need Toddzilla to re-emerge. I think you are unfair dumping all of our depth problems on Tubs. It's not worth going into because it causes headaches, but there are a lot of reasons that have conributed to our current predicament.
I hope the Todd of the first 4 and half games comes back today. If it's obvious by halftime it's not happening, we need to consider a change at QB.
Great material this morning JGT
Jet you would think the sit down for a crew would be an eye opener but I guess it will business as usual which does not bode well for Auburn.
I also thought that was a terrible late hit call. The guy was still fighting for yardage!
Here's my problem Digger ... there was no whistle, the guy was not on the ground, and the guy hadn't stepped out of bounds ... and they call late hit.
You tell the guy to be careful, but that's not a late hit.
Wow, Ark got worked on the QB keeper there.
Isn't Jerrell Powe 35 or something now?
let's hope those go our way tonight.
You just can't beat bad calls. They just keep coming. How do they justify them, they don't and don't have to until it is too late.
Jay G,
Top notch start of the game day blog today.
Phormerly Phred
I piled on over at the otehr site... called LSU a bunch of cheaters which should get us a bunch of "you all are a bunchof chop blockin, sons of saban"
love stirrin the puddin
OK, I guess holding the arm is legal now.
being able to watch this Ole Miss/Arky game on espn360 is not good for my library productivity today.
Fro Choker rain wise @ GT vs, Virginia - GT is my second favorite team - anything to put a stake in the bulldogs. Everyone said Johnson's system couldn't work in big boy football - seems to be doing alright to me.
Except for that fumble....lol.....
that should be "Frog
I'm in Baton Rouge. Trying to check in but room not available yet. Apparently the Auburn football team is here and hasn't checked out yet! Maybe I should go give them a pregame pep talk.
okay, I admit it...had to tell that slightly upset LSU fan my thoughts, though I was very polite.
glad you made it safely Kathy and by all means go for it! Can you imagine Chizik letting you go into the team meeting and letting you give them ten minutes of soul wrenching Auburn loving passion?
I just hope Auburn wins, so the trash talking to that LSU fan can continue after the game.
Game Day!!! It's great to be an Auburn Tiger. Glad you had a safe trip to Red Stick Kathy. Good stuff this morning Jay G. I enjoy reading your work. Thanks for doing what you do.
Auburn will win the west. It starts TODAY. Mark it dude!
It is so marked Dude.
Is this Ryan Mallett that is playing today the same guy who played against us 2 weeks ago?
No, he can't hit the ground with his passes today and when he hits a receiver they drop it 60% of the time.
Two weeks ago he was making NFL throws, now he's looking horrible.
Hard to believe there is a day where an Ole Miss D is better than ours.
Ryan Mallett has a very strong arm, though. Wow.
I have been told I have a strong chin.
How much can your chin bench Michael?
Ole Miss has a good defense. Probably top 3 in the conference, if not better.
Yep - the Rebels were strong right there.
OH NO!!!!!
I have been told I have a weak chin Michael.
I know this will piss JGT off - but does it seam that the Zebra's are having much more influence on a games outcome than years gone by? Does to me.
Refs? Come on.
Knew that would get you out of the closet JGT - I just don't see the Let'em Play like I used too.
Did I just say Jay came out of the closet?
Its been fun guys.... Banhammer on the way for me......
Selah
Arkansas' defense, on the other hand, is not that good.
That says a lot for Auburn's O don't it....
Arkansas and Auburn seem to be very similar. Good, but inconsistent offense. Bad defense, that just tries to slow down the other team's offense enough to stay in the game.
If each team's offense is playing as well as it can, each team can beat anyone in the country, almost. If the offense isn't clicking, both teams will probably lose.
Game Day Substance from DL... he's obviously got his game face on.
Oh wait, that's his dictator face...I get them confused.
btw...
HOTTIE HOOOOOOOOOOO from BTR.
Saw ScottieB's cousin (?) in the elevator this morning, all decked out in his HABOTN lid.
As you all know, I am a big believer in unrealistically high expectations. Tonight is no exception. If Todzilla gets rolling, we can beat the other tigers.
I'm SteveFC's alter ego. I think we could get killed tonight.
Okay THT, I am setting you up for....
Well imagine that, UT's headphones aren't working on the sidelines, sure that wasn't plans.
BEASLEY!!!
failure!
I tried THT.
thanks, wakerider
IV - your efforts are greatly appreciated.
We're off to get some food.
WARRRRRRRRRRRRRR EAGLE!!!
GO AU TIGERS!!!
Michael, A couple of your goats are loose in my back yard. Can you come and get them?
oops, sorry guys.
But I sure do hope UT pounds Bama into the dirt.
Just checked the Scoreboard Of Former Opponents - Ball State (0-7) is leading Eastern Michigan (0-6) 29-27 with just over 5 minutes to play.
Eye-opening stat: BSU has 422 yards of total offense. 421 of it rushing offense.
Yes, that's right, BSU QB tanner Justice has attempted 10 passes, completing 2, for a grand total of one yard.
Iowa State will beat Nebraska to move to 5-3 on the season.
Congrats to Paul Rhoads.
OK, who would like to see an ISU-AU matchup in Shreveport this December?
Okay, fire Chizik and hire Paul Rhoads!!!
And it's final: Ball State 29, EMU 27.
Congrats in order to BSU's Stan Parrish, his first victory as an HC in 8,408 days.
Total offense for BSU was 464 yards, with exactly 0.0021551724137931034482758620689655 coming from the passing game.
That's 1/464th for those of you keeping score at home.
Down with the corndogs!
Hating UAT.
War Eagle! Feeling like there's a chance for us tonight. I feel more focused today than the past two weeks! HA!
I still give kudo's to Ed Gran for landing Brown, OKU and nu'keeeeeeeeeeeessssseee
watch out in 2 years..
UAT outthinks itself ... settles for FG ... 2nd and 2 at the 5 and Ingram doesn't touch the ball.
Jay,
I hope #3 is your own opinion and not something coaches have told you. I have never heard of a defense trying to manage how long it takes another team to score. How would one coach that theory?
HOWDY
This Alabama offense is about as exciting as warm fat free vanilla jello pudding.
These are both NFL style offenses. I like watching it for a change
tigerfan, I think it is about limiting the number of scores. We are designed to outscore people.
That makes a lot of sense, jhag. I hate watching NFL football.
Wow, it is weird typing we are designed to outscore people. Malzahn may very well be Tuberville's polar opposite.
True statement, Id rather watch college to, obviously...its just a little change of pace, thats all im sayin
Did you just say you like watching Bama football Jhag?
I think we lost him guys.
When Tennessee has a chance of beating him, yessssssir
A few weeks ago, I thought this was the best overall team Bama's had since 1979. The past three weeks they've looked more and more like the 2005 version.
Too bad they don't have any decent teams left on their schedule to challenge them.
We are not decent? Define decent.
Thaddeus Lewis (DUKE QB)
Last two games:
40-50, 459 yards, 5 TDs, 0 Ints
30-43, 371 yards, 2 TDs, 1 Int
For the season:
164-255 (64.3%), 1972 yards, 14 TDs, 3 Ints
Cutcliffe can coach QBs.
Does UT make a comeback in the second half?
JHAG...Good call on Cutcliff
"Decent" by my definition means "top half of the SEC".
I don't think we can make that goal this year. We're probably around 8th or so.
Believe me, I'd love nothing more than to be proven wrong, starting tonight.
Missing that FG hurt them a little, but they are essentially one big play from taking the lead.
I've consciously stopped pulling against the Tide in every game like I did in my youth, but it would amuse me to no end for the Vols to pull the upset. Plus it would give me some hope for the Friday after Thanksgiving.
Ummm, why do Bama players have crib sheets stuck to their foreheads?
Hmmm, the BCS is not a component of the APP. BCS rankings are meaningless.
New thread UPZ.
We really do need a 16 team playoff. It won't lengthen the season. I say we play all the games on the same weekend. Yes, depth could be a factor, but for a national championship, these kids should just suck it up.
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