The Five I'm Watching: Part I
Thanks for your patience.
We're starting a new series today we like to call The Five I'm Watching, which highlights ... exactly what you think it highlights. Media Days, the unofficial start to college football in my world, begins on July 21.
That's only 13 days.
So let's start assessing what the Auburn Tigers have in store for the 2010 season. We'll begin by examining Cameron Newton.
CAMERON NEWTONQuarterback
- Age: 21
- Class: Junior
- Size: 6-foot-6, approximately 250 pounds
- Previous role: Starting JUCO quarterback
- Theme song: ``I Am The Highway," Audioslave
- Relevant lyric: "I am not your rolling wheels; I am the highway."
THE GOOD: The scouting reports we've all heard on Newton is that he's big and fast and commandeering. I haven't seen much of him because of Auburn's semi-restrictive access guidelines. I have seen enough to know he's faster than you'd expect from someone of his size. I know he has plus arm strength. I know he's bright and has the kind of fire one would expect from a top-tier college quarterback. He's in an offense that made a (compromised) Chris Todd pretty doggone effective. Imagine the kinds of numbers a healthy, thoughtful quarterback could amass. I don't say this often about athletes' parents, but Newton's father is a huge plus in my mind. He knows the game. He provides a certain thrust, I guess you'd say, that gives Newton proper large-scale vision.
THE BAD: His performance in the A-Day game did little to soothe questions about accuracy. To be fair, coaches asked almost nothing Newton in that game. It's a smart decision. A great game would have stoked expectations beyond where they are right now. I'm also wary of hype here. I'm not saying he's Greg Smith or even Eltoro Freeman, but the expectations being heaped upon Newton seem out of proportion given his lack of top-level experience. Was he good in junior college? Absolutely. Two rival JUCO coaches who spoke with me earlier this year made it clear, though, that Newton thrived primarily because of overwhelming play-making ability. Defenders at that level couldn't handle that. The Southeastern Conference is home to the best college defenders, pound for pound, in the world. Look at NFL rosters and tell me I'm wrong.
THE REALITY: He's going to be 80% of what you think he'll be -- at least initially. I expect his play-making ability to work well in this league. He'll create on the fly. He'll run away from some good linebackers, which will make you think: Damn, he's good. He'll improvise more often -- and more effectively -- than you think. I just get this sense that Newton's accuracy will wane beyond 20 yards. Gus Malzahn craves those long passes, too, so Newton will be forced to improve dramatically. My guess is that he will. It may take some time.
What do you think? Speak your mind!
posted by Jay G. Tate at
8:43 AM
152 Comments:
For 30 days and 30 nights, the Hottieites wandered in the desert, awaiting Substance from Homer. The Hottieites ate grubs and vitamin-deficient posts, determined to survive the month-long plague known as SOCCER.
And today, Homer has delivered the Hottieites from their substance deficient posts and cleansed them of their iniquities (or at least cleansed the one that needed it, hint hint Gadsden). All praise to Homer for true Substance!!!
The Hottieites bellies are now full, their thirsts quenched, and their minds set singularly on the task at hand, AUBURN FOOTBALL!!!
GO TIGERS!!!
WARRRRRRRR EAGLE!!!!!!!!!
he has taught his youngest son to.........
Is it? Could it be? Yep, that's some football substance. Sweet!
Throwing accurately to the correct receiver is what it's all about. We'll find out in 2 months if he can do that.
Had to finish that thought, THT!
"He's going to be 80% of what you think he'll be"
I'll take that percentage!!! It will be a vast improvement on what we have had.
I don't think correct receiver is the problem at all.
Did Jet get a hold of THT?
Kathy -- I think you're right.
I expect him to be an improvement over Chris Todd out of the gate. His arm strength will open doors that were nailed shut with Todd under center.
Newton will be the greatest quarterback in the history of LIFE
then that's a huge plus right there. Improving accuracy is a lot easier than improving split second decision making, imo.
Better than Allen Tillman?
LOL!
Allen Tillman. That was good.
I'm not sold on Cam, especially after A-Day. I am sold that this offense will be as good as he is, so I hope he is off the charts, but I'm just not convinced.
Thanks for the dose of Newton reality, Jay. You express some of my concerns, although I know the coaches mentioned that one of the reason he earned the starting job was his accuracy. I will believe it when I see it in an SEC matchup.
I know many are excited about his running ability and if that running ability augments his passing, I will be just as excited. I do hope we don't see him running often and he picks his spots like he did in the JUCO championship.
I certainly have concerns, Eddie.
You were sold on Rollison, but are not sold on Cam. That's pretty scary for AU's future. BTW, were you sold on Tillman?
Steve ... keep in mind that accuracy means throwing it to the correct team, too.
You guys have nothing to worry about. Relax.
THT- Rollison has all the tools to be that QB. The guy threw on the run with great accuracy and a great arm. Mechanics looked very good for coming out of high school. Yeah, I got on board the Express big time, and I still think you will hear about Rollison for a time to come if he gets his head screwed on. If not, he is nothing more than Cecil Collins, but at a high school level.
easy for you to say, Michael. You're a King.
Speed wise, from what I have read he is nearly as fast as Kodi, which is pretty impressive when you consider he is about 30 pounds heavier.
Hopefully he doesn't play dance revolution like Kodi does.
THT - On Irony Day Eve, it is common for Eurasians to gather with the ones they love (that haven't been imprisoned by the state) and sing the Eurasian Classic "Our Country is the Best, And We Don't Mind That Music is Outlawed" while keeping themselves warm next to a fire of burning books about the Nazi's views on Jewish literature.
And the children try to stay up as late as possible in an attempt to keep the Irony Gnome away. However, everyone is so bored, it is almost impossible.
Woo hoo! Media Days starts on my birthday. Football season is a good present!
You have to be convinced that there will actually be troubles for defenses this year when Cam comes around with an option because indeed he is a viable threat to run. Just ask the UT DB he trucked however many years ago that game was. And if he can get the accuracy and downfield pass thing down that y'all are talking about, this offense becomes even more dangerous.
It's not like he hasn't seen good SEC defenses, he may have even had to practice against one while at UF. Although playing once in a while as mop up is certainly different than starting. I just hope he can learn Malzahn's offense and execute it like those guys at Tulsa did.
Irony Gnome! Yikes. Aren't gnomes allied with puppets?
Jay Ratliff was the guest on NFL Live last night. There was a decent amount of Auburn talk. Among other things, they asked him who the most underrated QB in the NFL is, and he said, "Jason Campbell". Also, he said he created his sack celebration during the 2004 Iron Bowl following a TFL. Another interesting thing was that Mike Golic said that Jay is one of the two best DT's in the NFL (not bad for a 7th round pick).
Homer that is a good evaluation.
I have a feeling down deep about Cam's passing mechanics. Hopefully that can be corrected and we will see an all around great qB.
And a tight end!
When was the last time we got more than one good year out of a QB? Reggie Slack's senior year in 89? Apologies to D. Craig since his supporting cast was practically nonexistent.
THT - gnomes are magical beings. Puppets are made of fabric and enjoy human hands up their butts. Totally different.
well, they scare me equally.
Pat Nix was pretty solid in 94 and 95.
Until proven otherwise, I'm going to believe that Cam will be awesome. It makes for a happier life.
Being scared of them is perfectly acceptable. Even hunting them down is fine. Just saying, though, you are pretty much assured to lose that fight. I only pick fights against stuff I can win against. Like puppets.
You cannot discount Craig. 96-97 were stellar years from him, especially for a guy without a running attack. Imagine what he could have been like with a running attack?
Travis Tidwell was pretty solid in '46, '47, '48, and '49. He led the nation in total offense his freshman and senior seasons. Of course, like D. Craig, he didn't have any help.
Nix was solid, agreed.
The thing with any QB is that they can have 10 great plays in a row, but it only takes one bad play to cost you a game. There have been plenty of QBs with not so great athletic ability that turned into great QBs by simply playing smart. Todd did that last season most of the time. Randy Campbell is probably the best example I can think of. Jay Barker was also like that.
Brandon Cox is the counter example. He had a lot of very good games and I can't think of another QB I would want for a 2 minute drill late in a game, but when he had a bad game, it got real ugly.
Travelin' Travis was a hilarious interview. pick up the 100 Years dvd if u question my authoritay!
i <3 D.Craig.
Scottie B- Saw that Peter Gammons tweeted that the Braves were going after Corey Hart of the Brewers and trying to deal a couple of minor league prospects to get him. That would be big. The deal had promise according to Gammons.
sweet. i haven't seen that Eddie.
Sweeten the deal by throwing in Kawakami.
or Saito, with the junk he was throwing last nite.
crap Norm, we've done pissed off Feng.
sorry homes. :)
I'm more sold on Cam than I am Gus. I know Gus gets all the hype as a great OC, but I've yet to see the consistency out of this offense that a great system would bring.
Maybe it was the players last year, but we went into a funk last year against some teams (Kentucky, LSU) that others had no problem moving the ball against. We also struggled late in games when other teams (Georgia, Alabama) adjusted to what we were doing on offense.
Feng likes boobies.
RK- Maybe it was the 2-minute offense?
I'd let Corey Hart wear his sunglasses at night in Atlanta. He'd be a huge improvement over Melky Cabrerra who swings at everything.
Y'all don't forget to cast your all-star vote for Wagner.
I doubt he has much of a chance with all the talking heads at the 4-letter network flying their Joey Votto flags, but we gotta try.
Of course Feng likes boobies ehyou... everyone likes boobies.
I am definitely sold on the Malzahn offense, even though I am more of a Pat Dye/Tommy Tuberville run the ball kind of guy. College football has drastically changed over the last 4 or 5 years. Misdirection has become the norm, rather than a trick play.
More than one good year for an Auburn QB? We've had a few.
Burger in 86 & 87
Slack in 88 & 89
Nix in 94 & 95
Craig in 96 & 97
Leard in 99 & 00
Campbell in 02 & 04
Cox in 05 & 06
I think those were all good years, there probably hasn't been an Auburn QB with 2 great years since Sullivan.
There may have only been two great QB years at Auburn since Sullivan with Craig in 97 and Campbell in 04.
Leard was pretty solid in '99 when he was healthy. that UGA game in Athens was spectacular.
JGT thanks for some Football Substance....I'm sticking with my first thought.... Cam will either sink or swim on this offense.... it's designed to get the ball out quickly as you move though your progressions... we have a senior OL adn that will pay dividends on his early learning curve..
I think by Mid Schedule he will have full command of the offense and will have a few more wrinkles that Gus puts in to offset the film that teams will get on AU the first 6 games...
AU will thrive offensively only if the Defense gets 3 n outs and get off the field. this will be a plus during the second half of the schedule..... FRESH "D" Bodies to employ Roof/ Chiz attacking D!!!
I expect to see a lot more creativity on defense this season from Roof.
One of the things I love to hear is that he's a bright kid. A smart qb that makes good decisions can overcome (or at least somewhat mute) certain weaknesses (ie long range accuracy). I think Malzahn can work to Cam's strengths. His ability to tuck and run the ball is going to add a dimension AU hasn't had in a while.
I know one of the main questions in Roof's mind right now is, "What does SteveFC want to see out of my defense this year?"
Baldy,
Not sure how to put this, but most people seem to think Kodi Burns is a pretty smart kid.
great little write up on Newton Jay! I have to agree. I think he's gonna be a good one...possibly a great one...but probably only 80% of what we expect--because we all know us HABOTN followers expect A LOT of our hyped newcomers.
well Roof should certainly have more to work with this year.
I expect Roof to not have to play the same two linebackers 99% of the snaps down the stretch.
Scottie,
The Braves actually got a big bases loaded hit last night. It was an odd sight seeing them clear the bases with all their struggles with RISP.
i was surprised as well RK. nice to Mattie Diaz back too.
Jet's Stay-cation Notes:
1. The Braves should acquire Corey Hart only if he pledges to wear his sunglasses at night and never surrender.
2. An Authoritative Declaration Haiku ...
A-Day meaningless
Gus we trust implicitly
Cam will be a star.
3. Scottie B is correct in re Leard. Bowden did himself, the program and Leard no favors by seemingly never playing him in '97.
4. I am eager for football substance.
Jet - how long will this infernal haiku obsession of yours last?
Aycock has apparently become a walkon at USF.
Norm, as Tyler Durden once said, "The fights will go on as long as they have to."
I mean, we're looking
down on Wayne's basement. Only
that's not Wayne's basement.
One of the things Roof did at Minnesota was run multiple defensive fronts. There has been talk about a 3-4 front. The move of Bates may be part of this.
Here is a story on Aycock/
ehyou, marriage is punishment for shoplifting in some countries.
To you soccerheads like me...
The AP's chief soccer writer, Robert Millward, died today in Johannesburg. He was 58.
He filed his last story this morning.
Thoughts, prayers surely accepted.
FENG!
wow, that's a bummer JG. just days from the WC Final too.
Prayers for the Millward family. 58 is so young.
RK ..I'm willing to give Gus a pass on last season because of not having a running Qb, arm strength and playcalling diversity without substitution. Theres' a reasonable argument that all of those issues should be better this year.
Until I see Cam with good passing fundamentals and accuracy, I will reserve unfettered offensive optimism.
The defense will be deeper (still not talent deep enough) and thus better for that reason alone. We will still need the offense to keep pressure off the defense more so than to what we've become accustom. The balancing act required to score, use up clock and keep pressure off the defense with a spread offense is unpredictable and not always manageable.
We will win and lose some of those uncertainties, which leads me to a 9-3 regular season prediction.
Okay all you football super knowledge folks, it seems like the 3-4 defense is becoming the thing. So why are so many teams going to it, and why is it any more or less effective than the 4-3? Do we have the players to run a 3-4?
And as I think about it, why doesn't anyone run that 46 defense like the Bears did? Is it too antiquated?
This comment has been removed by the author.
Hoopie, I'll take 9-3.
Nine wins, I concur
Is a reasonable pick
But I say 10 wins.
MTD ...speed allows the 3-4 to defense to stop the run while freeing up one more guy from the 3 point stance. The faster and smarter the defensive players, the less needed on the line of scrimmage.
The speedy red head
Held our imagination
Beasley, 88.
WHO?
BEASLEY!!!!!!!! THAT'S WHO!!!!!
SOCCER / HUGE TRACTS OF LAND
Even though Paraquay was knocked out of the World Cup, Larissa Riquelme is still planning to make her run through the streets of Asuncion:
World Cup(s)
Jet - you're on my list.
But Hoopie, doesn't it also normally have a big ole boy in the center to close up the middle a la the human mudslide from West Vance? I don't think we have anything that... obese.
god bless Beasley, Kennesaw Georgia, & Larissa.
To say we got good/consistent QB play during the partial years for Leard in 99 and Campbell in 02 are a bit of a stretch in my opinion. Leard was knocked out for several games and Campbell was still battling the much ballyhooed (and much intercepted) Daniel Cobb until after the UF game.
When your backups are Daniel Cobb or Gabe Gross (or Jon Cooley or Meiko Collier), you are in bad shape.
Good news is that I think we are in better shape than we have been in a while and we are getting better.
i'll never forget Cooley's INT on a 2-point try vs. LSU in '96. yuck.
Then again I don't think UGA has something like that either for their up and coming 3-4. Perhaps throwing in a change of pace D will work.
If anyone needs me, I'll be hanging out in the streets of Asuncion until further notice.
If anyone calls and I'm not home, I'll be at the gym or the gun club.
Dan,
I understand your point, but Leard was spectacular in 99 when healthy and Campbell's half season numbers in 2002 showed what he could do if working with the right coach.
Now we know Norm's real favorite movie.
10 wins. That is my guess.
Offense should be more explosive just because of the options having a QB that can run will bring.
Defense will have several more bodies to throw out there to give others a break. Watch out for Jeff Whitaker. He is at the 300lb mark. BIG DT that loves to hit.
Schedule work in AU's favor. As others have said, if the offense is better than last year, and the defense is just a little better, AU has a better record.
I like Gus, but I have to question what happened last year with the teams AU should have beaten (UK, UGA) and why AU did not score more points. I have hard several reasons but am not convinced of them. My hope is that they backed off to rest the defense, and failed at it. If that is the case, whoever said to back the gas needs to remove his headset when AU has the ball.
ehyou - my "favorite" list is quite long and varied. When something here reminds me of one of them, well I just can't help myself.
"New" thread retro posted as to avoid clogging the REAL SUBSTANCIO.
Perhaps just a statement would have been better: I want all-sec caliber QBs consistently performing as such on the field in an Auburn uniform.
I don't think that is an unreasonable request/demand/goal.
I also don't think it is unreasonable for everyone in the US to send me $1 either if that is any insight.
I wonder if anyone is going to go retro post?
MTD - no.
Dan,
I agree. QB is one area we have rarely had a superstar player over the years.
MTD ...I don't think we have the personnel to run a 3-4 effectively other than just for confusion's sake.
Ehyou ....Wish I could go to Asuncion with ya. If I let you take my 10 megapixel digital camera, will you bring back detailed photos of the running of the Cup(s)?
thanks for that Hoopie
Maybe we should go back to John Lovitt's crazy D where we had Rovers and Hybrids all over the field.
Also retro-posted something about the ACC's new deal with ESPN, which is a fine network.
Homer - Do you have any other comments about ESPN?
What is the official HABOTN stance on ESPN these days Jay G?
Also does this deal limit the number of SEC games they will air? I kind of enjoyed last year when games that would never be televised would show up on ESPNU.
I bet JGT is in TIGHT with the folks at ESPN.
like, Lebron James tight?
Why hasn't ESPN covered Aycock like they have Lebron? I mean, it's all one in the same, right?
There will be severe consequences for the next person that mentions Lebron or "The Decision". I've had all I can take.
Well that didn't take long. Anybody know where I can find this Chris Broussard character?
OK; you old-timers know I don't really care one way or the other about basketball, so this is probably an ignorant question, is this Lebron thing REALLY that big of a deal? As big of a deal as ESPN is publicizing it to be? If he stays in Cleveland, do we really care? If he goes to Miami or elsewhere, do we really care?
Oops, upside yo head, say oops upside yo head.
Are there going to be baseball caps involved with the program going on on ESPN this evening? You know like national signing day?
Lebron is a diva. You remember how Michael Jordan made his announcement that he was coming back? He sent a freaking fax (or maybe it was just a press release) that said, "I'm baaaaaaaaack." That's it. No extended news conference to talk about the decision. A freakin' fax from arguably the best player to ever play the game. THAT'S how it should be done. But NOoooOOo. We gotta endure the "Will he/Won't he" for weeks on end. It's Farve part deux.
From what I have read about Roof, he has a wide variety of defensive formations. I would love to see us go all Joe Lee Dunn on some folks this season.
I'd like to see us go all square up and tackle on some folks this season.
Norm, no it's not that big a deal. It's just the story du jour at ESPN right now and has become a total farce.
I use to love watching Joe Lee Dunn's defenses. He did things that would get most coordinators fired. He might rush 4, he might rush 11, or he might drop 11 into coverage. You just never could tell with that guy, but somehow he would make it work.
Baldy - absolutely.
ehyou - that's been precisely my take on it for awhile now. Just making sure I wasn't missing something more subtle.
There are other sports outside of soccer? I had completely forgotten.
AC guys are at HABOTN HQ trying to help me with a duct problem.
Better than a duck problem.
i like ducks.
Better than Aycock problem.
Sorry, couldn't resist. I know that's supposed to go over on one of the retro threads.
Are you also a zombie Scottie?
I would care about the LeBron thing if the Hawks were involved in the discussion (I secretly hope he crawfishes everyone and signs with Atlanta), but that isn't going to happen, so I don't really care. However if I were a Miami, Cavs or Knicks fan I'd be VERY interested.
To that point I'm not much of an NBA fan so that's also a reason I don't care.
To Baldy's point I don't think the interwebs nor the perceived public demand for info was as great then with MJ as it is supposedly now.
There was also zero question where MJ was going to play.
I hate Lebron to Miami. Anywhere but there.
Hawks can't afford LeBron because they just offered Joe Johnson a ridiculous maximum contract he will never be able to finish.
Who's Lebron James? Is he the guy everyone likes to pretend is better than five time NBA champ Kobe Bryant?
i occasionally feel zombie-esque. i wouldn't say i'm a huge fan, though.
i do, however, stand by my statement on ducks.
With great substance and football talk ongoing what is all of this background chatter. Show me some ictures of that Model in her modelling attire.
Are you talking about Jan Terri, digger?
scottie b - I killed a duck on a golf course once. I didn't do it on purpose though so I felt pretty bad about it. It was kind of like Randy Johnson and that pigeon, except for the exploding part. But the principles were the same.
And now, I get to go spend a few hours at night with people I spend several hours with during the day. What joy!
michael I don't know I thought her name was Lassie, or was that a dog.
It's like, uh, five or something. I'm outa here.
Tweet tweet or whistle whistle here Lassie here.
ehyou, I had to take that one down.
Larissa is lovely.
This isn't an anatomy blog.
It isn't?
Is puppet anatomy still allowed?
Norm- bad hook?
I have found out the teams that will play in the BCSCG this season. The teams are Iowa and Boise State. If you don't believe me, read the bleacher report. If it is posted there, it must be true.
so no more molecular discussions since this is not an atomy blog.
Norm - the secret is to be on vacation or stay at work on a bogus conference call
MrsTHT and 2.0 don't play fair. I was down 4 lbs this morning from Monday and so they go and cook up this curry dish for supper that I can't stop eating. The lead was great while it lasted.
Iowa?
I may have missed this if it's already been mentioned here.
ITAT reports that Ziemba, Bynes, and Savage will be AU's student reps at SEC media days.
Digger ...hope you got to see the modelling photos before JG had to banhammer them.
The Bleacher Report: a perfect example of internet opinion disquised as credible reporting.
Jay, will we have the cornpone top 25 this year? You could rank the top 25 schools in the nation not from Iowa each week. It would be pretty entertaining.
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